Northern Arizona @ Drake

Analysis

Possessive Efficiency: In looking at a possession-based projection model, the Drake team of 2024-25 shattered expectations for what it means for a team to be “efficient” with the ball. Our possession based model sees this game hovering around 64.4 projected possessions, with Drake having a clear edge in offensive rating over Northern Arizona (122.5>108.6). The model indicates that Drake should be looking for roughly an 11 point victory, meaning the line as it stands before tip-off of Drake -8.5, is where we should lay the pick. This data is generated based on historical data, as well as data collected based on Eric Henderson’s coaching style, as we know its unlikely we’ll see this Drake team compete the same way they did under Ben McCollum.

Why Drake

Drake will be looking to continue one of the best overall mid-major campaigns in all of college basketball from last year. At this point in the season, we can’t track trends against the spread, or look at the most up to date data for this group of players. However, we know that Eric Henderson arrives after an illustrious career at South Dakota State. During his time at SDSU, Henderson made two NCAA Tournament appearances, while cultivating a high pressure defense and an offense that swung based on how energetic their team could be on defense. We will absolutely see more pace, and more transition efficiency from Drake this season.